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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY – TRENDS
[The Guardian] Trump agrees to postpone tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month This is the third time Trump has postponed his threat to impose 25% tariffs on the two countries until March. After talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump agreed to refrain from imposing new tariffs. Amid Trump’s accusations of an alliance with Mexican criminal groups by Sheinbaum’s administration, it was agreed to send 10,000 members of the Mexican national guard to prevent drug trafficking. In return, the US agreed to work to prevent high-powered weapons from crossing the border into Mexico. Trudeau, meanwhile, announced that Canada would implement a $1.3 billion border plan reinforcing the border, improving coordination and increasing resources to stop the flow of fentanyl.
[Reuters] India and US agree to resolve trade and tariff disputes Following White House talks between Trump and Modi, India and the US agreed to begin talks to reach a quick trade deal and resolve their standoff over tariffs, while New Delhi pledged to buy more US oil, gas and military equipment and to fight illegal immigration. The deal could be finalised within the next seven months. A joint statement after the meeting said Washington welcomed New Delhi’s recent steps to reduce tariffs on certain US goods and increase market access for American agricultural products as it seeks to negotiate the initial segments of a trade deal by the fall of 2025.
[Foreign Policy] How Trump’s tariff policy will shape the world Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi’s analysis of Trump’s tariff policy highlights the tensions between different protectionist approaches. On the one hand, some advocates seek to encourage specific industries in the US through tariffs (industrial policy). On the other, there are those who propose a ‘ring-fenced market’ to correct the alleged bias in favour of global capital and to the detriment of US workers. Tooze points out that these visions can coexist, but require different beliefs about the state’s ability to identify strategic sectors. Regarding the impact of tariffs, Tooze confirms that their effectiveness depends on generating economic disruption, redistributing costs and benefits among consumers, workers and investors. However, he warns that the quantitative effects of international trade on the US economy are smaller than is sometimes argued. As for the global response, Tooze suggests that other countries could take measures such as imposing controls on key exports (e.g. Chinese tungsten) or sanctioning US companies (e.g. Tesla or Apple). However, he stresses that US leverage stems from global macroeconomic imbalances, and that an effective response would require expansionary fiscal policies in Europe and China to compensate for the loss of demand resulting from a trade war.
[Financial Times] During the campaign, Trump promised to end the Biden Inflation Reduction Act (something Congress would have to do) and signed an executive order freezing more than $300 billion worth of loans and grants. Party members must secure near-unanimous support to implement the president’s promise and roll back or repeal the law. Some of the most powerful Republicans on the congressional tax and budget committees have seen an increase in clean investment since the IRA. For example, investment in the state of South Carolina, led by Tim Scott, chairman of the Senate Republican caucus, has grown by 380% since the law was passed. Some Republicans have indicated that they are looking for ways to retain some of the spending by repealing some credits.
[Bloomberg] During the Munich Security Conference, Japanese Foreign Minister Tekshi Iwaya sought Japan’s exclusion from the reciprocal tariffs Trump plans to adopt when he met with US Secretary of State Marcos Rubio. He also raised the issue of auto tariffs (given the importance of the Japanese auto industry) and called for the exclusion of the 25 per cent tariff that the US will apply to imported steel and aluminium products. Trump has previously attacked Japan’s trade surplus with the US and the weakness of the yen that fuels that imbalance and recently singled out Japan, as well as South Korea, as nations that he believes are taking advantage of the US. South Korea, meanwhile, is seeking to implement tariffs on Chinese steel and some producers due to concerns about an influx of cheaper products flooding the market. The government would seek to impose a provisional tariff of up to 38.02% on hot-rolled steel plate imported from China. Countries such as Vietnam are trying to avoid Trump’s tariff threats by stating that they have no intention of imposing measures that restrict trade with the US and that they are willing to increase imports of US agricultural products. Vietnam also welcomes US investors to participate in new energy projects, areas of oil and gas, as well as mining. After the US-China trade war, Vietnam became an important alternative base for production aimed at US markets.
[Financial Times] Chinese holdings of US Treasuries fall to lowest level since 2009 The value of US sovereign debt held by Chinese investors fell by $57 billion to $759 billion in 2024. The shift would partly reflect China’s desire to diversify its foreign reserves by buying assets such as gold, although Beijing may be trying to hide the true extent of its Treasury bond holdings by transferring them to custody accounts registered elsewhere. China’s holdings of Treasury bonds have fallen by about $550 billion since peaking in 2011. UK holdings increased by $34.2bn in 2024, while Belgian holdings rose by $60.2bn and Luxembourg holdings gained $84bn. Japan remains the largest holder with more than $1 trillion. The price of gold has risen by about 12 per cent so far this year, indicating growing demand among large buyers. China was the third largest buyer of gold in the last three months of 2024, adding 15.24 tonnes to its reserves. However, the fall in Treasury holdings may not necessarily mean that China is selling dollar assets in general. China could be increasing purchases of other safe-haven US debt securities, such as agency bonds.
[Bloomberg] The official report of China’s February Politburo meeting contains little new information and, in fact, repeats the economic policy formulation of last December’s Central Economic Work Conference. The announcement came as a surprise to officials in both countries, and comes just ahead of the National People’s Congress in China, where the economic plan for 2025 will be unveiled. While it is not expected to affect growth targets or fiscal policy, it could impact market sentiment. 
In response, the Chinese Politburo reaffirmed its commitment to stimulate domestic demand and stabilise markets. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has urged his officials to remain calm. Despite the tensions, the two countries are seeking to avoid a rupture in the relationship: China’s vice premier recently spoke with the US Treasury secretary, and military talks are planned. China reiterated its desire to resolve differences through dialogue. There has not yet been a substantive reaction to the additional 10 per cent tariffs Trump announced on Thursday 27, but both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce (MoC) condemned the move. China warned that it will retaliate against the new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, raising tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it will respond with ‘all necessary measures’ to defend its rights and interests. The new 10 per cent tariffs, which will take effect on 4 March, come on top of a previous tariff of the same percentage implemented earlier this month. Trump justified the move by citing drug trafficking from North America and China’s alleged involvement in supplying it. He also confirmed that the 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain in place. Markets reacted negatively: Chinese stocks in Hong Kong fell by as much as 3.9 %, while the CSI 300 index declined by 1.9 %. The Chinese currency stabilised after the central bank’s intervention.
COMPETITION BETWEEN GREAT POWERS – INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
[The New York Times] Trump aims for a bigger and better trade deal with China Trump expressed interest in a deal that includes substantial investments and commitments from China to buy more US goods (despite China’s failure to purchase an additional $200 billion in goods and services under the 2020 agreement). It is believed that he would also like the deal to include issues such as nuclear weapons security, which he plans to resolve personally with Xi. Trump is already pursuing a familiar strategy of tariffs and other threats as he seeks to negotiate a deal. On 1 February, he imposed 10 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports on Beijing, which quickly resulted in retaliation from the Chinese. He has also floated the idea of revoking the permanent normal trade relations that the US extended with China more than 20 years ago. Trump’s team would be discussing issues such as who would take over the talks, what elements of the 2020 trade deal the Chinese had failed to honour and how best to bring China back to the negotiating table. In their 2020 pact, Chinese officials had pledged to open certain markets to foreign companies, better protect technology secrets, and buy US crops and energy. But they never came close to meeting the purchase targets, which Beijing says was due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
[Bloomberg] The consequences for Latam of the Panama Canal conflict In the short term, diplomatic relations between the US and Panama and/or the countries that supported Panama’s sovereignty over the Canal could deteriorate, especially if the Trump administration adopts a more rigid stance in the political or economic sphere. An increased US presence in the Canal could also intensify strategic disputes. Although on 5 February the US State Department referred to an alleged agreement whereby US ships would now transit the waterway without charging fees, the Canal administration refuted that option and reported that it did not adjust tolls and other transit fees, although the possibility of establishing a dialogue is left open. Trump has already suggested that the canal was supposedly in danger of falling into the wrong hands, saying that it is not China’s job to manage it. In an attempt to appease Trump and following a meeting in Panama with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Panama’s president cancelled the Silk Road economic agreement with China on 6 February. Although a total transit freeze is unlikely, possible restrictions, trade retaliation or strategic decisions by major shipping lines could affect the flow of trade, increase logistics costs and divert traffic to alternative routes. China could focus on adjusting its strategy in the region, prioritising bilateral agreements rather than grand alliances under the Silk Road initiative, especially with strategic countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Chile.
[Reuters] Trump says he supports Ukraine, but early concessions to Russia raise concerns Trump discussed the war separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, telling US officials to begin talks to end the nearly three-year war. The phone calls came shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Ukraine’s military allies in Brussels that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders (before Russia annexed Crimea) was unrealistic and that the United States does not see Kiev’s NATO membership as part of a solution. He also said that US troops would not be part of any security presence in Ukraine. Russia occupies about one-fifth of Ukraine and has demanded that Kiev cede territory and become permanently neutral in any peace deal. Ukraine demands that Russia withdraw from occupied territories and wants NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees to prevent Moscow from attacking again. Trump’s calls and Hegseth’s statements coincided with a visit to Kiev by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said a minerals deal between Kiev and Washington would provide Ukraine with a post-war ‘security shield’.
[BBC] Baltic countries disconnect from Russia and join EU power grid Plans for the move, which have been in preparation since 2007, were considered essential for European security and had been tabled after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The so-called Brell power grid (representing Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) is almost entirely controlled by Moscow and has long been considered a vulnerable point for the three Baltic countries. They are now NATO members and have not bought electricity from Russia since 2022, but their connection to the Brell grid left them dependent on Moscow for power flow. Von der Leyen warned that NATO must remain vigilant to possible Russian retaliation. In total, around €1.6 billion was invested in the project to transfer the three nations to the EU grid, much of which was provided by the EU.
[Financial Times] Five conclusions from Germany’s historic election The leader of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, Friedrich Merz, won a mandate to succeed Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its contingent of lawmakers since the previous election in 2021, and the far-left experienced a late surge by attracting younger voters. This could complicate Merz’s bid to loosen the constitutional debt brake to fund defence spending. Germany’s conservatives won the election with 28.5% of the vote, the second lowest tally in their history and only four points higher than their worst result in 2021. With 16.4% of the vote, the SPD (Scholz) suffered its worst defeat since 1887. Christian Lindner’s FDP did not get enough votes to enter parliament, while the Greens (led by economy minister Robert Habeck) also lost support, albeit to a lesser extent than their other coalition partners. The highest turnout since reunification (82.5 per cent) largely benefited the AfD. The far-right’s rise came at the expense of all other parties, but its greatest success was mobilising non-voters: around 40 per cent of the AfD’s 4.4 million voters were citizens who did not vote in 2021, according to exit polls. The CDU/CSU lost 910,000 voters to AfD, but also gained more than 1 million previous non-voters. The far-left Die Linke party made surprising gains (winning 8.8 per cent of the vote) by mobilising younger voters (18-24). However, the AfD came second, meaning that almost half of Germany’s youngest cohorts supported a party at both ends of the political spectrum, a marked increase from 2021.
[The Conversation] If the US seeks to withdraw from the World Bank, the China-led AIIB could be ready to step in and offer a model for global cooperation. An eventual US withdrawal from the World Bank could create a vacuum that the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) would be in a position to fill. Founded in 2015, the AIIB has grown in importance and has received recognition from institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank itself, which see it as a key player for infrastructure financing in developing countries. Unlike other Chinese initiatives such as the Belt and Road, the AIIB has tried to project an image of multilateralism and transparent governance, which has allowed it to gain legitimacy in the international financial system. However, doubts persist over its degree of independence from the Chinese government and whether its approach really follows robust environmental and social standards, or whether it ends up serving as a geopolitical tool of Beijing. In this context, the possible withdrawal of the US from its traditional role in the World Bank – partly driven by changes in its foreign policy – could accelerate the AIIB’s influence and reinforce its model of global cooperation, challenging Western dominance in the international financial architecture. Still, the transition is not without its challenges, as the AIIB will need to demonstrate its commitment to good practice and inclusive development to establish itself as a legitimate alternative to Western-led financial institutions.
[The Washington Post] China to expand its presence in the South Pacific with agreement with the Cook Islands The Cook Islands’ recent entry into a strategic partnership with China has sparked protests outside parliament, infuriated its long-time ally New Zealand and, this week, almost brought down the islands’ government. On Wednesday 26, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown survived a no-confidence motion with a 13-9 vote. Opposition lawmakers were outraged that Brown made the deal with Beijing in secret, jeopardising the country’s historic relationship with Wellington, which, according to New Zealand’s foreign minister, Winston Peters, will now have to be ‘reconfigured’. The partnership with China also follows a failed proposal last December to create a Cook Islands passport and citizenship, which was also unwelcome to New Zealanders and Cook Islanders. The Cook Islands gained partial independence in 1965, but its 15,000 residents hold New Zealand citizenship and passports and use the New Zealand dollar. In addition, New Zealand has committed more than $57 million in aid since 2022 and provides foreign affairs and defence support. Beijing pledged a five-year ‘action plan’, including $4 million for education, the economy, infrastructure, fisheries, disaster management and, more controversially, seabed mining to extract nickel- and cobalt-rich nodules. The Cook Islands is only the latest South Pacific nation to sign an agreement with Beijing. Kiribati has entered into a number of development agreements in recent years, including the installation of Chinese police stations, as have the Solomon Islands. China has also succeeded in getting both countries, as well as neighbouring Nauru, to change their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to mainland China.
[Estadão] China’s State Administration of Market Regulation launches antitrust investigation against Google According to an article by João P China has launched an investigation against Google on suspicion of violating Chinese antitrust laws. The company is already facing prosecution in the US and, although it has been blocked in China since 2010, it is still active in the advertising sector. The move is seen as a response to new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Chinese imports into the US.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
[Americas Quarterly] DeepSeek reveals the crossroads of AI in Latin America While DeepSeek may not yet match the advanced capabilities of GPT-4 or Gemini, it is a turning point for Latin American countries with limited resources because its use does not require prohibitive investments in infrastructure. But to do so, Latin America needs to start investing in its own capabilities today. Enabling resource-scarce countries to develop AI applications tailored to strategic sectors reduces dependence on foreign tech giants and gives countries the rare opportunity to claim ownership of their own AI ecosystems, weakening the monopoly of U.S. and Chinese companies. DeepSeek’s mid-range hardware efficiency challenges the assumption that only nations with abundant, low-cost energy (such as Brazil, with its rich hydropower, or Argentina, with its oil and gas production) can develop domestic AI ecosystems. Countries with moderate energy costs but strong digital infrastructure, such as Mexico and Colombia, could emerge as competitive AI hubs by avoiding the high costs of energy-intensive GPU clusters. In Brazil, institutions such as Fiocruz are already developing AI-powered solutions for the agricultural sector to increase yields through precision farming, while in Argentina, PROMETEA, an AI system developed by the Public Ministry, is automating the processing of legal documents and streamlining judicial decisions. New capabilities could leverage efforts already underway, including initiatives to reduce operating costs and environmental impact at Chilean mining giant Codelco; track deforestation, water use and urban sprawl with satellite-based environmental monitoring in Mexico; and improve financial inclusion by providing alternative financial and credit rating services to microentrepreneurs who lack access to traditional banking, as Quipu is doing in Colombia. Chile has also just announced a major step forward: its Latam GPT project, a public, open and inclusive large language model (LLM) to be launched in June 2025.
[Financial Times] Making AI safe again On the sidelines of the AI Action Summit in Paris, Stuart Russell, professor of computer science at the University of California, Berkeley, asked what would happen today if the AI industry suffered an accident equivalent to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant explosion. His answer was that it was a fallacy to believe that there has to be a balance between safety and innovation. Therefore, those most excited about the promise of AI technology should proceed with caution. “You can’t have innovation without security,” he said. Vance emphasized the national security imperative to lead in AI and argued that the technology would make us “more productive, more prosperous and more free.” “The future of AI will not be won by lamenting security,” he said. While the first international summit on AI held in Bletchley Park, Britain, in 2023 focused almost entirely on security issues, the priority in Paris was action. Of most concern to security advocates is the speed at which the technology is developing and the dynamics of the corporate (and geopolitical) race to achieve general artificial intelligence, when computers could match humans in all cognitive tasks.
[The Verge] Thomson Reuters wins early court battle over artificial intelligence, copyright and fair use U.S. District Court of Delaware Judge Stephanos Bibas issued a partial summary judgment in favor of Thomson Reuters in its copyright infringement lawsuit against Ross Intelligence, an artificial intelligence legal startup. Filed in 2020, it is one of the first cases that will address the legality of artificial intelligence tools and how they are trained, often using copyrighted data extracted from elsewhere without license or permission. Similar lawsuits against OpenAI, Microsoft and other AI giants are currently moving forward in the courts. However this case involves a “non-generative” AI, not a generative AI tool such as an LLM. The judge rejected Ross’s fair use defense, based largely on the factor of how Ross’s use of copyrighted material affected the market for the value of the original work by creating a direct competitor.
STRATEGIC MINERALS
[The conversation] Trump threatens to disrupt the supply of critical minerals to the world Trump’s decision to withdraw from the UN Paris agreement to control global warming has given rise to some pessimistic outlooks on the impacts of this policy. If markets interpret Trump’s decision to invest in oil and gas as permanent, the incentive for new mining projects for critical minerals will fall, along with long-term supply, which could threaten the transition to green energy. However, it could also mean a temporary shock without a significant change in the trajectory of the global energy transition. First, the United States maintains a comparative advantage in exporting a wide variety of critical minerals and, among them, the most critical. In addition, the U.S. produces and uses only a small portion of clean technologies, its influence in the clean technology market could be limited. Finally, new tariffs could further increase the criticality of some minerals.
CLIMATE CHANGE
[The Guardian] Brazil asks UN to drop proposed global shipping tax The proposed tax on carbon dioxide emissions from shipping is being discussed within the International Maritime Organization. Supporters of the agreement, including the UK, EU and Japan, expect the tax to raise billions of dollars a year, which could be used to help poor countries cope with the effects of climate change. On Jan. 31, Brazil, China, Saudi Arabia and 12 other countries submitted a submission to the IMO opposing the plans, arguing that a tax could reduce exports from the developing world, raise food prices and increase inequalities. At least 46 countries, representing about two-thirds of the world’s shipping fleet, are believed to be in favor of a deal. Levies could work even if not all countries participated.
[Carbon Brief] Clean energy accounted for 10% of China’s GDP in 2024 Clean energy sectors (including renewables, nuclear power, power grids, energy storage, electric vehicles, and railroads) drove a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 and surpassed real estate sales in value. China’s investment in clean energy was close to the global total invested in fossil fuels in 2024. However, investment in clean energy achieved 7% annual growth that cooled markedly from the 40% expansion in 2023. The “three new” industries (electric vehicles, batteries and solar power) continued to dominate the economic contribution of clean energy in China, generating three-quarters of the value added and, overall, attracting more than half of all investment in the sectors. These sectors grew three times faster than the Chinese economy as a whole and accounted for 26% of total GDP growth in 2024.
[Financial Times] ADM pledges to meet climate targets as Donald Trump divides corporate world Despite looser regulations under the Trump administration that make it easier for companies to reduce their environmental targets, US commodities trader Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) pledged to meet its climate commitments; ADM’s president for Europe, the Middle East and Africa said the company would not join the growing number of US groups abandoning or diluting their sustainability targets. U.S. group Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, and some U.S. financial institutions have reduced their climate targets. But other groups have maintained their environmental commitments; General Motors, Ikea and the mining company Rio Tinto have confirmed their green targets. The agri-food industry is a major contributor to global emissions. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, freezing of IRA funding and cuts in support for sustainable agriculture and rural renewable energy projects have had a major impact. In addition, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be reevaluating regulations on pesticides and carbon reduction requirements.
NUCLEAR ENERGY
[EIA] Since the 2011 Fukushima accident, Japan has restarted 14 nuclear reactors In 2024, Japanese utilities restarted two additional nuclear reactors that had been suspended from operations in response to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, bringing the total number of reactors restarted to 14 since the accident. Most of the restarted reactors have been pressurized water reactors (PWRs) located in western Japan. Onagawa Unit 2 and Shimane Unit 2, on the other hand, are the first boiling water reactors (BWRs) to be restarted. Japan suspended its nuclear fleet from 2013 to 2015 for mandatory safety checks and upgrades following the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Prior to the accident, 54 commercial nuclear reactors were operating in Japan and nuclear power accounted for approximately 30% of the country’s electricity generation. Recently, public support for restarts has been growing in Japan. The suspension of Japan’s nuclear fleet significantly increased reliance on imports of natural gas, oil and coal to offset the loss of domestic nuclear generation. It also significantly increased the installed capacity of solar PV generation in the country. Japan’s current policy aims to maximize the use of existing reactors by restarting as many units as possible and extending the licensed life beyond the current 60-year limit. The country also plans to develop next-generation reactors in cooperation with the domestic manufacturing industry and electric utilities. 
[MINING.COM] Uranium price falls as DeepSeek revolutionizes tech sector The spot price of uranium, considered key to the development of energy-intensive artificial intelligence as fuel for nuclear power, fell following the launch of DeepSeek. The price fell $3.90 per pound of uranium oxide to $67.30 per pound on Tuesday, a weekly drop of $6.55 per pound. Despite the negative change, reactor demand is expected to continue to be supported by significant growth in ongoing reactor construction in China.
CHIPS and SEMICONDUCTORS
[Reuters] Nvidia reduces its stake in Arm Holdings and discloses its position in China’s WeRide Nvidia has reduced its stake in Arm Holdings by about 44%, decreasing its holding to 1.1 million shares valued at about $181 million. In addition, the company has fully divested Serve Robotics and SoundHound AI during the fourth quarter of 2024. In parallel, Nvidia has acquired 1.7 million shares of Chinese autonomous driving startup WeRide Inc, which triggered a 94% increase in the value of WeRide shares. WeRide uses Nvidia’s advanced graphics processors and artificial intelligence software to power its vehicles, and had a market valuation of $4.71 billion at the most recent close. These investment decisions reflect Nvidia’s strategy of aligning itself with emerging companies in the artificial intelligence sector.
MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
[APNews] Israel and Hamas have begun negotiating the next phase of the Gaza cease-fire, according to Egypt. Hamas expressed on Thursday its readiness to enter into negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage release agreement, but Israel does not seem to be on the same page. Earlier in the day, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced that a delegation would be sent to Cairo to discuss extending the first phase, which is scheduled to expire in two days. “We are willing to extend the framework in exchange for the release of more hostages,” Saar said, just hours after Hamas handed over four dead hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Under Israel’s extension proposal, Hamas would release three captives each week in exchange for more Palestinian detainees. Such a move would delay the start of the second phase, which aims to secure the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. It is unclear what might happen if Israel and Hamas fail to reach an agreement before the first phase expires. Israel has repeatedly rejected any mandate to withdraw its troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, an area of Gaza along its border with Egypt, arguing that their presence is necessary to prevent arms smuggling from Egypt into Gaza. An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, reiterated this position to The Associated Press on Thursday. However, Hamas has asserted that any Israeli attempt to maintain control of the corridor would be a “flagrant violation” of the cease-fire agreement. In addition, Hamas emphasized Thursday that the “only way” for Israel to secure the release of the remaining hostages would be to adhere to the initial agreement. Any attempt to deviate from the truce “will only lead to more suffering” for the captives and their families, it added.
ANNUAL SECURITY CONFERENCE IN MUNICH
[Politico] JD Vance attacks Europe over migration and freedom of speech The Vice President of the United States delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference that shocked the audience by harshly criticizing European governments. Vance accused Europe of ignoring the will of its citizens, overturning elections, restricting religious freedoms and failing to act against illegal migration. Instead of focusing on traditional defense and security issues, he addressed controversial cultural issues, such as abortion laws in the United Kingdom and the recent elections in Romania. He stated that the greatest threat to Europe comes not from external actors such as Russia or China, but from an internal erosion of fundamental values shared with the United States. The reaction of European leaders was one of dismay. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called Vance’s comparison between parts of Europe and authoritarian regimes “unacceptable”. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, said it appeared that the U.S. wanted to “provoke a conflict” with Europe. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt described the speech as “much worse than expected” and accused Vance of “blatant interference” in European politics. This speech marks a significant departure from previous U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing an agenda more aligned with right-wing movements and questioning traditional democratic alliances.
UKRAINE
- [Gzero] In the first high-level contact between the two sides since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and Russia met Tuesday in Saudi Arabia to outline plans to end the Ukraine war and restore bilateral ties. The Trump administration wants to end the war quickly as part of a broader reset with Russia and a possible NATO shake-up. Moscow seeks, at a minimum, Ukraine’s explicit neutrality and disarmament, but also a broader U.S.-Russia pact on global issues that would include relief from the current extensive list of U.S. and European sanctions. Nothing concrete was agreed on key issues, such as where to draw the armistice lines, how to police them so that the conflict does not flare up again, what postwar Ukraine will look like politically, or what U.S.-Russian relations in general will hold. But the two sides laid “the groundwork” for future talks and pledged to reappoint ambassadors to each other and to restaff embassies. Who was there? A U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a Russian delegation led by his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Who was not there? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called the meeting a “surprise.” Zelensky met Tuesday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose own attempts to mediate the conflict are now also in question. Who was also not present: The Europeans, who have so far been shut out of the Trump administration’s Ukrainian diplomacy, which began in earnest last week with a lengthy phone call between Putin and Donald Trump and continued with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s suggestion that NATO membership and a full return to pre-2014 borders are unrealistic goals for Ukraine in peace talks.
- Ahead of Tuesday’s meeting in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine and trade ties between the two countries, French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency meeting with European leaders in Paris on Monday to discuss Ukraine. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited to Tuesday’s talks in Riyadh, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not even formally informed that such discussions were taking place. The Europeans concluded a meeting Monday night with a tweet from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stating that “Ukraine deserves peace through strength,” but without reaching a consensus on what that peace should look like. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed his readiness to contribute peacekeeping troops, conditional on a security guarantee from the United States. However, Polish President Donald Tusk ruled out sending Polish troops even before the meeting began. For his part, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the discussion on peacekeepers “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” while the war continues. In addition, Scholz objected to any agreement being reached without the participation of Europe or Ukraine. Europe has been quick to respond, amid internal divisions over who should back any peace deal in Ukraine and how Meanwhile, Trump and Zelensky clashed. On Tuesday, Trump incorrectly told reporters that Ukraine had started the conflict and demanded a new election there, claiming Zelensky had a 4% approval rating. Moscow has long sought to replace Zelensky as part of any solution to the conflict. The Ukrainian president, whose approval rating is actually almost 60%, retorted that the U.S. president “lives in a bubble of misinformation.”
[The Economist] Donald Trump is upending the transatlantic alliance. The NATO-centric transatlantic alliance, built up over decades with military deployments and joint exercises, has suffered a severe blow following a series of decisions by the Donald Trump administration that have reversed nearly 80 years of US foreign policy toward Europe. On Feb. 12, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that his country is no longer the “primary guarantor” of European security. Then Vice President J.D. Vance sharply criticized Europe at the Munich Security Conference, attacking its stance on free speech and immigration and showing support for Germany’s far-right AfD party. Tensions rose when on February 18, U.S. and Russian officials met to discuss ending the war in Ukraine without the participation of Europeans or Ukrainians. Shortly thereafter, Secretary of State Marco Rubio strengthened the relationship with Russia and discussed possible economic partnerships. Trump has also pressed Ukraine to hand over critical mineral rights as payment for U.S. aid, even proposing to negotiate with Russia for access to deposits in occupied territory. Europe, facing the possibility of a break with the U.S., has begun to discuss how to assume a greater role in continental security. Emmanuel Macron called emergency meetings to discuss sending troops to Ukraine if a peace deal acceptable to Volodymyr Zelensky is reached. While the UK supports the idea, other countries such as Poland reject it due to a lack of military capability. Given that Russia has nearly 600,000 troops attacking Ukraine, any European force deployed would have to be significant. France and the UK consider a “security force” with air power rather than a large ground presence. However, many agree that U.S. logistical and intelligence support would remain crucial for deterrence. The fear in Europe is that Trump is considering a division of Europe similar to that of the Yalta Conference in 1945, giving Russia influence over certain regions. There is also concern that he will withdraw U.S. troops from Europe, weakening NATO and leaving European allies vulnerable. To counter these risks, some European countries are looking to increase their defense spending (the UK could raise it to 3% of GDP) and revive EU recovery funds to bolster their military capabilities. Others consider confiscating frozen Russian assets to finance the war in Ukraine. If the U.S. withdraws its support for Ukraine, Europe could be forced to assume the entire burden of its defense, which would entail a high cost in armaments and troops. However, an alternative strategy could include modernizing the Ukrainian military or creating an international peacekeeping force with countries such as Brazil or China. Despite the uncertainty, Europe and the U.S. remain mutually dependent. For Trump to achieve a lasting deal with Russia, he will need European support, which in turn will require him to ensure US commitment to Europe’s security.
[Financial Times] Trump breaks off meeting with Zelenskyy after intense White House confrontation During a tense meeting in the Oval Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a sharp confrontation with former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance over U.S. support for Ukraine. The meeting, which was to culminate in the signing of a mineral agreement between the two countries, ended inconclusively. Zelenskyy criticized previous attempts at diplomacy with Russia, noting that they had failed to prevent further aggression. In response, Vance chastised him for questioning the U.S. administration at its own headquarters, while Trump reminded him that Ukraine was not winning the war and should be grateful for U.S. backing. The conflict arose in a broader context of changes in Washington’s foreign policy. Trump had surprised Kyiv and European capitals by initiating direct talks with Vladimir Putin on ending the conflict, leaving Ukraine out of the negotiations. In addition, the mineral agreement, which envisaged the creation of a joint investment fund with the U.S., was put on hold after the tense exchange at the White House. Zelensky’s visit to the U.S. talso was marked by pressures from European leaders, such as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who urged Trump to provide security guarantees to Ukraine after the end of the war. However, the former president refused to commit US troops to the country. The meeting culminated in a week of significant diplomatic shifts, with the US aligning itself with Russia, China and other countries such as North Korea and Belarus at the UN, in contrast to its traditional backing of allies such as the UK and France.
LATIN AMERICA
The Guardian and NYT cover the ELN’s presence in Venezuela and how the group is increasing violence along the border. This is one of those stories that has been building for two decades, but is now at the center of President Gustavo Petro’s security agenda, given the ongoing violence. For the first time in many years, the Colombian and Venezuelan governments are conducting joint operations against various criminal and insurgent groups along the border. At the same time, many are questioning the extent to which Colombia should trust Venezuela, given that there are clear alliances between elements of the Venezuelan military and various Colombian criminal/terrorist/insurgent groups.This situation stands a good chance of worsening after the 2026 Colombian elections. The next president will not be as tolerant as Petro with Venezuela’s contradictory messages about these illegal armed groups. Two decades ago, there were times when Colombian President Uribe threatened cross-border incursions to take over FARC and ELN camps inside Venezuela. A combination of regional diplomacy and the threat of a relatively strong Venezuelan army prevented him from doing so. In the current environment, the region has lost patience with Maduro, Venezuela’s military is much weaker than it was under Chavez, and there is a U.S. president who likes to see expressions of symbolic toughness, regardless of his current stance on diplomacy with Maduro. The same elements that pulled Uribe back from the brink are no longer there. If security worsens in Colombia and the citizens of that country elect someone to solve the crisis, cross-border tensions will increase.
[France 24] Bolivia inaugurates a steel plant built with a Chinese loan. On February 24, 2025, Bolivia inaugurated the Empresa Siderúrgica del Mutún (ESM), its first steel plant, built with a Chinese loan. The plant, located in the Cerro Mutún iron deposit, covers 42 hectares and consists of seven production facilities: Concentration, Pelletization, Direct Reduction (DRI), Steelmaking, Rolling, Power Plant and Auxiliary Plants. The construction, started in 2019 with the technical assistance of the Chinese company Sinosteel and financed by the Bank of China, faced interruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and labor problems. With a total investment of $546 million, the plant is expected to produce 200,000 tons of steel products in its first year, with plans to double its capacity in the coming years.
