International Dossier | End-of-Year 2024

International Dossier | End-of-Year 2024
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY – TRENDS

[Reuters] How might investments behave during the Trump 2.0 era and Fed easing? US investors are bracing for a series of changes in 2025, from tariffs and deregulation to fiscal policies, that will impact markets when Trump returns to the White House, focusing attention on whether the US economy can continue to outperform. The change in government has big implications for the performance of stocks, bonds and currencies in the year ahead and may force investors to readjust their portfolios. Forecasters expect another good year for stocks, the dollar to maintain its recent strength over the next few months and Treasury yields to rise. Solid consumer spending and a resilient labour market are believed to put US growth on a firm footing. Of critical importance is how quickly or deeply the Fed may cut rates (after cutting rates in December, making it clear that the pace of further cuts would be slowed). 

 

[Reuters] China extends anti-dumping probe into EU brandy by three months China’s Commerce Ministry said it would extend its anti-dumping investigation into brandy originating in the European Union by three months, less than the full extension allowed under its previous guidance. The investigation, which began on 5 January and was due to be completed in a year, would be extended until 5 April due to the ‘complexity’ of the investigation, and could be extended by six months in special circumstances. The investigation was seen as the result of France’s support for EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and demands that Chinese importers pay security deposits of almost 40 per cent if they wish to import brandy from the bloc.

 

[Euronews] Chinese workers ‘enslaved’ at BYD car factory site in Brazil Some 163 Chinese nationals were rescued after being found working in ‘slavery-like’ conditions at a construction site in northeastern Brazil, where Chinese electric vehicle company BYD is building a factory. The labour prosecutor’s office said the workers had been hired in China by Jinjiang Construction Brazil, which had confiscated the workers’ passports and withheld 60% of their wages. BYD said it will ‘immediately terminate the contract’ with Jinjiang Construction Group and is ‘considering other appropriate measures’.

 

[Reuters] World Bank raises China GDP forecast The World Bank raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that weak household and business confidence, along with real estate headwinds, would continue to weigh on the country next year. The housing crisis and tepid domestic demand were a problem during 2024, which could be compounded by an increase in US tariffs when Trump takes office. However, thanks to the effect of recent policy easing and near-term export strength, the World Bank expects China’s gross domestic product growth to be 4.9 per cent this year, up from its June forecast of 4.8 per cent. Beijing had set a growth target of ‘around 5%’ for 2024. Although growth for 2025 is also expected to fall to 4.5 per cent, it is still higher than the World Bank’s previous forecast of 4.1 per cent. 

 

[The New York Times] Mexico, betting that Trump is lying about tariffs, sees an opportunity The last time Trump was president, he unleashed a trade war against China that worked to the benefit of Mexican industry. Companies that relied on Chinese factories to make products for the US market moved production to plants in Mexico to avoid Trump’s tariffs. This ‘nearshoring’, gained momentum when Biden extended tariffs on Chinese imports. Rising shipping prices during the pandemic increased the dangers of relying on factories across the ocean. For companies seeking to bridge the gap between plants in Asia and customers in the US, Mexico was an attractive place to manufacture their products. Now that Trump is threatening the nearshoring economy by promising to impose 25% tariffs on all goods entering the US from Mexico and Canada. Mexican industry wonders whether Trump is using the threat as pressure to stop the movement of people and drugs across the border or whether he really wants to force companies to move their production to the United States. In this regard, some businessmen remain optimistic that the status quo will prevail, because the Mexican and US economies depend on each other for parts and raw materials for their own finished products. While the Trump administration promises an expanded trade war, companies in Mexico continue to expand their factories. They assume that their country remains central to the United States’ most fervent goal: reducing reliance on factories in China. In turn, some see Trump’s threat as a way to force the Canadian and Mexican governments to accept an earlier renegotiation of their terms of the T-MEC.

 

[Semafor] A huge copper mine in Panama asks Trump for help A huge copper mine in crisis in Panama asks Trump Tristan Pascall, CEO of First Quantum Minerals, is seeking the help of US President-elect Donald Trump to resolve a dispute over the Cobre Panama mine, closed since November 2023 due to tax and environmental disputes. Pascall believes the mine could be key to US interests in clean energy and advanced manufacturing. He highlights the opportunity for the Trump administration to support mining projects in Latin America to counter China’s influence.

 

[Bloomberg] China is considering issuing special bonds worth a record $411 billion. China is planning economic measures for next year, with leaders suggesting bolder stimulus in the face of tariff threats from the incoming Trump administration.

International Dossier | End-of-Year 2024

Officials have pledged to widen the fiscal deficit and increase bond issuance to tighten fiscal policy and stimulate consumption. China’s CSI 300 index rose 1.3%, while government bonds continued to lose value. The 10-year yield rose four basis points to 1.72%, and the one-year rate rose 23 basis points. Earlier, it was reported that China may inject up to 1 trillion yuan into its major state-owned banks to strengthen their ability to support the economy.

 

 

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

[Global Times] China Japan China and Japan reach 10 major consensuses During the second meeting of the China-Japan High-Level Consultation Mechanism on People-to-People and Cultural Exchanges, CPC Central Committee Political Bureau member and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya reached 10 major consensuses. The countries agreed to promote youth exchanges, deepen cooperation in education, sports, tourism and entertainment, build more platforms for sister-city exchanges. The two sides will engage in exchanges between women’s organisations to share experiences on promoting the joint development of men and women. In addition, they will work to make the Osaka-Kansai Expo 2025 a platform for communication and friendship between peoples.  

 

[South China Morning Post] As regional players grow stronger, the US-China story no longer defines global affairs Mohamed Zeeshan’s article in the South China Morning Post argues that while US-China tensions have been seen as the central focus of global affairs, in 2024 this perspective has changed. President Joe Biden’s administration, from its inception in 2021, presented China as a strategic and economic competitor, implementing policies to isolate Beijing and counter its influence through alliances. These measures included continuing the trade war initiated by his predecessor and encouraging US companies to move their operations to countries more aligned with the United States. As a result, bilateral trade between the two nations dropped significantly, from almost $700 billion in 2022 to less than $500 billion in the first ten months of 2024. However, despite incidents such as tensions over Taiwan and an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon, US-China relations have ceased to be the main focus on the international stage. Instead, regional actors have gained prominence, influencing the trajectory of global politics.  For example, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China was expected to play a determining role in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions, but this did not materialise in any significant way. This shift reflects a more complex global dynamic, where multiple regional actors exert increasing influence, and US-China relations are no longer the sole defining factor in international affairs.

 

[Financial Times] How America First will transform the world by 2025 On the impact of Donald Trump’s policies in his second term as US president, those centred on protectionism and unilateralism, which have led to a reassessment of international relations and influenced global dynamics. The ‘America First’ stance has generated tensions with traditional allies and disrupted trade and security agreements. It has also encouraged other powers, such as China and Russia, to expand their influence in regions where the US has reduced its presence. This approach has led to a more multipolar world, with shifting alliances and rivalries, and has posed challenges to the established international order.

 

[Politico] President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Mauricio Claver-Carone as Special Envoy for Latin America at the State Department. Claver-Carone, a Cuban-American, was a key figure in formulating policy towards Venezuela during the first Trump administration and chaired the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). His mandate will focus on promoting economic growth and addressing security challenges in the region. However, his departure from the IDB was marked by controversy due to allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a female subordinate, which he denied, attributing them to smear attempts by the Biden administration. This appointment is part of a broader strategy by Trump to bolster the US presence in Latin America, including appointments of figures with experience in the region, such as Senator Marco Rubio and former ambassador Christopher Landau, to key diplomatic roles. However, the creation of multiple special envoy positions with roles that could overlap with those of traditional ambassadors and other State Department officials has raised concerns about potential conflicts of competence and confusion in foreign policymaking.  

 

[Bloomberg] Trump Demands Panama Lower Transit Fees or Return Canal President-elect Donald Trump said the Panama Canal charges ‘exorbitant prices and passage fees’ to US naval and merchant ships, and demanded that the fees be lowered or else Panama should return the canal to the US. ‘The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, especially knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed on Panama by the US,’ Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform. ‘This complete ‘scam’ on our Country will stop immediately.’ The US completed the 82-kilometre canal across the Central American isthmus in 1914, but ceded it back to Panama in 1999 under a treaty signed by former President Jimmy Carter in 1977, a move Trump called foolish. Trump suggested the canal was in danger of falling into the wrong hands, saying it is not for China to manage. China is its second-largest customer. A Hong Kong-based Chinese company controls two of the five ports adjacent to the canal, one on each side. ‘It was not given for the benefit of others, but simply as a show of cooperation with us and with Panama,’ Trump said. ‘If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in its entirety, and without question.’

 

[The Epoch Times] Trump sends Christmas message to Trudeau, Greenland, China and Panama The president-elect issued a message on Truth Social that reiterated his stance on reclaiming the Panama Canal, making Canada the 51st state of the United States, the annexation of Greenland and President Joe Biden’s decision to commute the death sentences of nearly 40 prisoners. Trump wished ‘Merry Christmas to everyone, including the wonderful soldiers of China, who lovingly but illegally operate the Panama Canal (where we lost 38,000 people in its construction 110 years ago).’ He also wished Merry Christmas to the Canadian prime minister, calling him ‘Governor Justin Trudeau’ and claimed that ‘If Canada became our 51st state, its taxes would be cut by more than 60 per cent, its businesses would immediately double in size and it would be protected militarily like no other country in the world.’ Trump also congratulated the people of Greenland, an island he said is necessary for US national security, and the ‘lunatics of the radical left’ domestically. 

 

[Financial Times] US President Joe Biden has blocked Nippon Steel’s $15bn acquisition of US Steel. The decision represents a setback in relations between Washington and Tokyo, and underlines the Biden administration’s protectionist stance in strategic sectors. The move has generated diplomatic tensions, as Japan is a key US ally in Asia. The US Department of Commerce justified the decision by citing national security concerns and the need to protect the domestic steel industry. For its part, Nippon Steel expressed disappointment, while the Japanese government has requested further explanation of the decision. U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel have filed multiple lawsuits, citing national security concerns. The companies allege that the decision was politically motivated and lacked a rational legal basis. One lawsuit, filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, seeks to overturn the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) review process and Biden’s order. Another lawsuit, in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania, accuses Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and the United Steelworkers of anti-competitive actions to impede the transaction.

 

[The Guardian] Gabriel Boric makes historic trip to the South Pole The president of Chile travelled to the South Pole to reaffirm his country’s claim to sovereignty over its part of Antarctica, the first Latin American leader to reach the southernmost point on earth. Since 1961, activities in the region have been governed by the Antarctic Treaty. In the past, Chile has concentrated its research in the northern part of Antarctica, but the South American country hopes to expand its efforts to the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas, at an important time for Chile’s scientific work in the region.    

 

[Euronews] Justin Trudeau resigns as Canada’s prime minister He also resigned as party leader, admitting he felt he was not the right choice to lead his party to victory, and has said he will remain in office until his successor arrives. The former leader indicated that the crisis in his government was one of the reasons for his decision to step down, saying it had become clear that if he had to fight ‘internal battles’ he could not be the best choice for Canadians. Trudeau was grappling with problems after the resignation of his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, whose disagreement with him over how best to deal with the US president-elect’s threat to impose harsh tariffs on Canadian goods. Within days of his inauguration, Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on all imports from Canada from his first day in office, even though the two nations are often each other’s largest trading partner. Trump has also criticised Ottawa’s economic dependence on Washington, repeatedly said Canada should become the 51st state of the United States and referred to Trudeau as ‘Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.’ Polls also showed that his popularity with the Canadian public had fallen.

CLIMATE CHANGE

[Bloomberg] Where climate-smart tech companies’ money will go in 2025 In 2025, climate tech investments face significant political, economic and technological changes. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a possible reversal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a decrease in Department of Energy funding and weaker environmental regulations are anticipated. Globally, trade tensions are affecting supply chains and driving interest in local manufacturing and energy-efficient technologies. Artificial intelligence is gaining prominence in the sector, being used to optimise materials essential to the energy transition, such as those that capture carbon, and to improve grid management, which will require an annual investment of $811 billion to modernise by 2030, according to BNEF. On the other hand, initial enthusiasm for green hydrogen has waned due to high costs, reaching $5.09/kg in some markets, and global demand that has not met expectations. In terms of investment strategies, the green hydrogen sector shows signs of retreat due to high costs and limited adoption, while direct carbon capture technologies face challenges due to their energy and economic requirements. In contrast, sectors such as building decarbonisation and sustainable agriculture, while competitive, remain attractive due to demand for technologies such as heat pumps, batteries and solar power, as well as solutions to reduce agricultural emissions. The greatest opportunities lie in growth-stage companies, especially those that make the difficult transition from prototype to commercialisation. In addition, technologies related to national security, such as the production of critical minerals, steel and semiconductors, stand out as strategic areas where security and cleantech interests converge.

SOLAR ENERGY

[Bruegel-Rhodium Group] Transatlantic Clean Investment Monitor: solar PV In terms of deployment, Europe led solar development with massive subsidies in the 2000s, reaching an installed capacity of 257 GW in 2023, compared to 139 GW in the US. International Dossier | End-of-Year 2024However, effective electricity generation is similar due to the greater number of sunshine hours in the US Southwest. Germany dominates European capacity, while in the US, tax and state incentives have driven steady growth. In manufacturing, growth in the US is faster thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Between 2023 and 2024, US module assembly capacity almost doubled to 38 GW. In contrast, Europe relies heavily on imports from China, although it has some projects under construction. Both regions face significant trade deficits in modules and solar cells. Europe imports almost exclusively from China, while the US has diversified to countries such as Vietnam and South Korea due to protectionist policies. Despite this, import dependence remains high on both sides of the Atlantic.  Going forward, while Europe prioritizes rapid technology deployment, the US seeks to develop domestic supply chains and reduce its dependence on China. These divergent strategies reflect contrasting approaches to the energy transition.

 

[Bloomberg] Solar capacity around the world was deployed at a record pace as lower panel prices helped countries deploy cleaner energy. Major markets such as China, India and Germany saw steady growth, while demand soared in countries that previously showed little interest in this energy source, such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistán. Meanwhile, both wind and solar capacity exceeded the target in China almost six years ahead of schedule.

NUCLEAR ENERGY

[Financial Times] Argentina picks US investor to boost nuclear-powered AI dream Argentina will turn to a US investor and small modular reactor technology to expand its nuclear power sector which could spell the end of a Chinese project at the same site. Demian Reidel, who heads nuclear energy policy, said Milei would hand over the Buenos Aires province site earmarked for the country’s fourth plant to a 1.2 GW project designed by Argentine research center Invap, which will use nascent SMR technology. The investor that would form a joint venture with Invap was not named. Milei and Reidel unveiled a plan to increase Argentina’s nuclear power generation and uranium mining capacity, with the aim of attracting technology companies that increasingly use energy-intensive artificial intelligence to set up data centers in the country’s cooler south.  

INTELIGENCIA ARTIFICIAL 

[Brookings] Constitutional Constraints on Artificial Intelligence Regulation The Pentagon is looking to intensify its technological edge over rivals by betting heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) as a key tool in 2024. This interest is not new, as the military sector has historically been an early driver and adapter of advanced technologies. According to a Brookings Institution analysis, U.S. military spending on AI-related contracts grew dramatically from $355 million in 2022 to $4.6 billion in 2023. This growing demand has attracted technology companies of all sizes.  OpenAI, for example, announced on December 4 a partnership with Anduril Industries, which specializes in drones and autonomous systems, marking a shift from its previous stance of banning military use of its models. This collaboration will focus on defensive systems to protect soldiers from drone attacks. Although OpenAI employees have expressed ethical concerns, CEO Sam Altman defended the decision by arguing that it is about ensuring the safety of soldiers. OpenAI is not alone in this trend. In November, Meta lifted its ban on military use of its models and began offering them directly to national security agencies, contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Booz Allen, and technology companies such as Palantir and Anduril. Meanwhile, Anthropic, creator of the Claude chatbot, announced a partnership with Palantir and Amazon Web Services to provide AI capabilities to U.S. intelligence services. Military applications of AI go beyond autonomous weapons systems, including intelligence analysis, command and control, and administrative tasks such as writing press releases or managing personnel.    

 

[Reuters] TSMC in talks with Nvidia for AI chip production in Arizona, sources say. Nvidia, a world leader in AI chip design, is expanding its presence globally and in the United States. In the southwestern U.S., it is negotiating with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to manufacture its Blackwell processors at TSMC’s Arizona plant, which will begin operations in 2025. Although final assembly is performed in Taiwan, this expansion is part of an initiative supported by the CHIPS Act and the U.S. Government ‘s Science Act.  In Southeast Asia, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with the prime ministers of Thailand and Vietnam, announcing a research and development center in Vietnam and the acquisition of startup VinBrain In Thailand, it signed an agreement with SIAM.AI Cloud and highlighted the importance of “sovereign AI” for each country. In China, Nvidia faces an antitrust investigation related to its acquisition of Mellanox in 2020, against a backdrop of U.S. restrictions on the sale of its advanced chips to the Chinese market. Nvidia expressed its willingness to cooperate with regulators.

CHIPS and SEMICONDUCTORS

[Reuters] Biden launches new investigation into Chinese chip trade The Biden administration announced a last-minute trade investigation into Chinese-made “legacy” semiconductors that could trigger more U.S. tariffs on chips that power everyday products. The investigation would be turned over to the Trump administration in January for completion and could offer Trump a fast track to begin imposing some of the steep, 60% tariffs he has threatened on Chinese imports. Biden already imposed a 50% U.S. tariff on Chinese semiconductors starting Jan. 1. His administration has tightened restrictions on exports of advanced memory and artificial intelligence chips and chip manufacturing equipment to China and also recently increased tariffs to 50% on Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon. . 

ELECTROMOBILITY 

[Reuters] Honda and Nissan aim to merge in 2026 In a historic turn for Japan’s auto industry, underscoring the threat posed by Chinese electric vehicle makers to traditional manufacturers, Honda and Nissan are in talks to merge in 2026. The merger would create the world’s third-largest automotive group by vehicle sales after Toyota and Volkswagen. In turn, it would give the two companies scale and the opportunity to share resources in the face of intense competition from Tesla and Chinese rivals such as BYD. The merger would be the biggest restructuring in the global auto industry since Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and PSA merged in 2021 to create Stellantis. Mitsubishi would also be considering joining. 

 

[Financial Times] Sales of electric vehicles in China will overtake those of traditional cars years earlier than in the West. International Dossier | End-of-Year 2024Electric vehicles are expected to outsell internal combustion engine cars in China for the first time next year, in a historic turning point that puts the world’s largest car market years ahead of its Western rivals. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Carbon Brief] Tesla suffers first annual sales drop in its history due to China’s onslaught on the electric vehicle market. Tesla recorded its first annual drop in sales, according to the Daily Telegraph, selling 1.79 million cars in 2024 versus 1.8 million in 2023. This comes against a backdrop of increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers and a global slowdown in electric vehicle sales. Although Tesla achieved a quarterly record in the last three months of the year, it faces challenges from the need to introduce a more affordable model, following the limited uptake of the Cybertruck.  Despite the slowdown, Tesla’s share price rose more than 60% in 2024, boosted by Elon Musk’s closeness with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. However, Bloomberg warns that Musk’s 2025 growth targets could be at risk if Trump cuts tax credits for electric vehicles. BYD, Tesla’s main competitor, remains a key challenger. Although BYD is looking to expand outside of China, it faces barriers such as tariffs in the U.S. and EU.  On the other hand, the Cybertruck will qualify for a $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. thanks to locally manufactured components.

CRITICAL MINERALS

[The Conversation] China has banned U.S. exports of key minerals for computer chips Shortly after Washington’s third crackdown on China’s semiconductor industry, China banned the export of gallium and germanium to the United States. These minerals have critical economic value because they are used in computer chips, in military technology such as night vision goggles, and in the renewable energy industry, where they are important for the manufacture of electric vehicles and solar cells. China is the source of 98% of primary gallium and 91% of primary germanium. The United States could choose to expand domestic extraction of these minerals, diversify primary production by investing in friendly countries, or intensify extraction from primary sources (by recycling devices) even though they present difficulties. 

 

[Reuters] Chile files environmental charges against Anglo American’s copper mine Chile’s environmental regulator filed four charges against the major Los Bronces copper mine, controlled by Anglo American, for non-compliance with environmental permits. The charges could result in a fine of nearly 17 billion pesos (US$17.17 million). Los Bronces is one of Chile’s largest copper mines with production of 255,000 metric tons last year, as well as a key project for Anglo American, which has been targeted for acquisition by larger rival BHP. The breaches revolve mainly around the design of acid water mitigation and mine waste containment systems. 

 

[Bloomberg] Brazilian miner ramps up rare-earth production challenging China’s dominance Serra Verde Group, a Brazilian miner, is increasing production of rare-earth metals amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the main supplier of these minerals essential for technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. International Dossier | End-of-Year 2024The company, which began commercial production in Goiás a year ago, plans to produce 5,000 tons of rare earth oxide annually by 2026 and is evaluating strategic alliances to expand capacity. With the backing of Denham Capital and an investment of $150 million in 2023, Serra Verde seeks to position itself as an alternative for the West in the face of dependence on China, which controls 70% of production and 90% of world refining. The company is also considering doubling its capacity in Brazil by 2030 and has been recognized by the Minerals Security Partnership, an international collaboration to diversify supply chains. Although rare earth prices have fallen due to oversupply, Serra Verde anticipates annual demand growth of 8.5% through 2035 and expects a significant turnaround in its balance sheet beginning in 2026.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

[The New York Times] Israel bombs Yemeni airport and ports after Houthi missile launch. Israel struck military installations and electrical infrastructure in areas of Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia on Thursday. The move is the latest in an escalation of tensions between Israel and the Iranian-backed rebels, who control most of Yemen and have launched several missiles and drones against Israel in the past week alone. The Houthis pledged solidarity with Hamas in the days following the group’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and have since directly attacked Israel, as well as ships in the Red Sea. Earlier this week, Israel threatened to kill the group’s leaders after a Houthi missile landed in a Tel Aviv playground. In recent months, Israel has dealt heavy blows to Iran’s other two main regional proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, killing the leaders of both groups. 

UKRAINE

[New York Times] Biden announces $2.5 billion in security aid for Ukraine. The U.S. President announced that the United States will send nearly $2.5 billion in security aid to Ukraine ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. The Biden administration’s final aid package will include anti-aircraft defense, artillery, hundreds of armored vehicles and other critical weapon systems. In a separate announcement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disbursed $3.4 billion in direct aid to Ukraine, adding that “Ukraine’s success is in America’s core national interest.”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and other officials in Damascus on Monday to strengthen Ukraine-Syria relations. “Certainly, the Syrian people and the Ukrainian people have the same experience and the same suffering that we endured for 14 years,” said newly appointed Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, referring to Russia’s unconditional support for ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

INDIA

[Bloomberg] Phone and electronics companies led by Apple remain a bright spot in India’s otherwise slow-growing manufacturing sector, although being mainly assembly operations so far, these factories have also raised the country’s import bill from China.  Developments in the “Made in India” solar value chain will need to be watched in the coming year as incentive schemes accelerate and cell imports face new trade barriers. It could also be the year Musk finally arrives in India, with less chance for Tesla and more for Starlink. Trump’s arrival in the White House may pose a risk for India, with the US being India’s largest export market and a major supplier of capital. It is the consumer of up to one-fifth of Indian exports – led by two shiny new growth pockets in phone manufacturing and global capacity centers – and where the largest sources of fund flows are also located. India will also have to make progress in trade agreement negotiations with the United Kingdom, the European Union and Australia, among others.

 

By Dafne Esteso (@dafnech_esteso) and Brenda Vladisauskas (@bvladisa)